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YOU THINK YOU HAD A BAD DAY? Read this football bet.

DOUBLE BAD BEAT

Tulane 53.5 vs Tulsa -5.5
———————-
Bet Tulane
Bet Under
————
Halftime score is: 0-0


Points are ok getting 5.5
Under is incredible at 53.5
————
End of 3rd quarter


Tulane 14–Tulsa 0
Points are looking great
Under is 39 points from winning; So lock it up
————
Start of 4th quarter


Tulane. Tulsa
    14—7
    14—14    1:51
    21—14.    0:06 left

Tulsa has ball with .06 seconds left. QB throws 37 yard pass to tie and send to OT at 21-21
———-
First OT


Tulsa scores FG first 21-24
Tulane scores FG 24-24 to tie
———-
2 OT
Tulane gets ball. Throws a 94 yard pick-6
Final
Tulane 24
Tulsa 30

Final Results

Tulane bettor had + 5.5 to lose by the hook
Tulane bettor also had under 53.5 to lose by the hook. 

And you think you 

had a bad day?

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INSIDE THE NFL “ATS” NUMBERS THRU WEEK NINE

Playing at Home

Home teams get to enjoy the comfort of being on your home turf, whether it’s maintaining a game-week rhythm or eating meals in your home, or sleeping in your own bed. They also don’t have to contend with travel protocols. But does that add up to more point spread covers?

Thru 9 weeks, home teams are 
76-70-1; 51.7% straight/up

Road Team Perks

Performing well in road games has become less difficult, thanks to the advancement of private air travel, football technology and mental fortitude. You have talking headsets now in helmets, and you have signals from the sideline …so the hardships of yesteryear are behind us somewhat. 

Thru week 9, visitors are 70-77-1; 47.6%  straight -up


Empty Stadiums

Nearly empty stadiums make for just one variable that a coronavirus world presents, and accurately projecting its impact will prove to be a difference-maker for everyone’s bottom line. The biggest adjustment yet might be the decision to limit fans’ attendance at games. So how has this affected home-field advantage? Although it’s too early in the season to reach a definitive conclusion, it’s evident that the home-field advantage is waning from past NFL seasons. During the 2019 season, home teams were a mere nine games straight up,132-123-1, combined above .500, (.518 win rate), the lowest home win rate since 2002.

Home teams over-all:
70-77 ATS; 47.6%

Home Favorites 

41-53 ATS; 43.7%

Home Team Advantage?

The assessment begins with a concept that already seems to have become outdated: home-field advantage. In fact, home teams won just 52% of regular-season games last year. That ranks as the third-worst season in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) and worst since 1972.

Home dogs are 29-24; 54.7%

Visitor underdogs;

53-41 ATS; 56.3%


Outside Factors

You’re handicapping betting behavior more than anything, especially on the higher-profile games, Denver will still have its altitude, warm-weather teams still must endure late-season elements, and travel will still involve challenges and annoyances that figure to inhibit a team’s performance such as navy to back road games. 


Add to your Handicapping 

Over the past five years, a league-high 14.7% of NFL games were decided by exactly three points. The second-most common margin of victory was seven points (9.9%), followed by six points (7.1%).

It’s a Dog eat Favorite World 

Underdogs are: 2020 ATS

82-65; 55.8% thru week 9.

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5 WAYS TO HANDICAP FOOTBALL GAMES!

There are many ways to handicap football games when broken down to the basics. Here are 5 of the most important factors to share from 35 years of beating the Vegas number. In most match ups, a combination of all factors weighs into the final outcome. However, many handicappers choose to rely on one of the following methods more than another. It is the “identify” of that handicapper. As any CEO in the business world can do, handicapping “numbers” is very similar to crunching the numbers of a financial report. Let’s review the 5 most popular methods I’ve used during my 35 year career as “America’s Oddsmaker” and “The King of Vegas Sports Gambling.”


1) TECHNICAL 

There are more “technical’s” available for each game than any other method. For example, when one hears that team A is 9-1 verses team B over the last 10 years- that is a technical. There are teams that are 9-2 at home and 2-9 on the road. Night games vs. day games and grass vs. turf are common examples of “tech’s”. One has to consider how teams play within their division, as opposed to outside their division. A team like the Oakland Raiders was once labeled as “unbeatable” on Monday Night Football. That technical trend is no longer applicable. Trends must be updated often. One can go back into the history of numbers and find all these “stats and trends”. Many trends follow patterns that don’t change for the way teams play. West coast teams traveling to play on the east coast with that early 1:00 est start had always favored the east coast teams. The time change and travel took its toll. But the oddsmakers have offset that by adding more points to the east coast team adjusting the spread. This is not an automatic bet any longer. Another one (the NFL is trying to avoid) is playing three consecutive games on the road. It used to be another automatic play going against the road team on that third road game. The oddsmakers have adjusted their point spreads but the average gambler has not. These are the type of technical points of reference to be careful.

2) EMOTIONAL 

One has to watch certain games where emotional factors are involved. This is especially true in college where emotions can run especially high (due to youth and bitter long-term rivalries). Revenge is good for “an emotional outlook” of playing a game. An embarrassing loss from the previous year also needs to be considered. There are certain rivalry games where all stats can be thrown out and the underdog will play like the World Champions. In the NFL, what you watched last week may be a huge change of play this week. A team that looked embarrassing and pathetic in week four might come out in week five and play completely opposite from the previous week. The oddsmakers are guaranteed to have made the line adjustments to trick the bettors. Beware and check with Wayne Root. There’s usually at least one game each week which this applies. 


3) SITUATIONAL 

This is a combination of technical and emotional scenarios. There could be a “key” injury that is “situational” to that game. The weather could become a major factor in analyzing the game. Be careful of placing too much emphasis on injuries, as the team with the injured star often rises to the occasion for that situation. And when it comes to weather, wind is the number 1 factor- far ahead of rain or snow. This factor and by me usually betting live underdogs are the reasons to bet these games as close to kickoff as you can. There’s rarely an instance where betting a Sunday game on Friday is paramount.

4) FUNDAMENTAL 

Handicapping by using “fundamentals” is simply looking at basic fundamental “X and O” football stats. When team A is ranked number 1 in passing verses the number 27 passing defense, one has to look at betting team A. There are teams- due to age and lack of speed- that have trouble on turf. Make sure the fundamentals are in place in terms of statistics when doing the analysis. The playoff teams that rush the ball the most seem to win more often. Be sure to check rushing stats verses “against the rush” stats before placing a wager in this method of handicapping. And separate regular season versus Playoff stats- it’s a whole new season.

5) BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC 

Wayne Allyn Root use to notice that most of his friends and fans lost nonstop in sports wagering. So a light bulb went off in his head over 35 years ago AND still applies to this day. Wayne began studying public opinion- and betting against it. He simply calls it “going against the public.” Experts might call it “Contrarian Betting Strategy.” His thinking is 90% “contrarian” to the public. And he has been the most successful handicapper in America for 35 years- starting with his days as co host with Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder on Financial News Network (now CNBC). Wayne’s track record for over three (3) decades has been the source of the media declaring him “America’s Oddsmaker,” “The Face of Las Vegas Gaming” and “The King of Vegas.” It is the reason that Wayne was awarded a star on the Las Vegas Walk of Stars- alongside Elvis, Liberace, Wayne Newton, Bobby Darin and Siegfried & Roy. He is the only professional sports handicapper ever honored (and the youngest recipient ever). All these years later, Wayne’s focus remains on betting against the public. The public has a difficult time betting underdogs- so WAR bets on the underdogs. That’s where the point-spread value is found. When the point spread is rapidly escalating because of a “key” injury, WAR bets on the injured team. WAR loves to bet against popular “public teams” and wager on what he calls “orphans” (teams the betting public ignores or believes has virtually no chance of winning).

Wayne Root (WAR) has built a legendary career by going against the crowd and traveling “the road less traveled.” That’s the reason why Wayne has been a superstar for 35 years in a business (sports handicapping) and a town (Las Vegas) where’s stars come and go, rise and quickly burn out and fall. Handicapping champions boom, then they bust. Only Wayne Allyn Root has stayed at the top of his game for 35 years. Only Wayne Root has attracted several MILLION calls from America’s sports fans and bettors. Only Wayne Root can attract the kind of accolades from the American media found below. This 2020 football season, it’s time for you to experience the POWER and PROFIT of Wayne Allyn Root. It’s time for you to go to W.A.R. against the bookmaker and emerge victorious. Let’s go to WAR together week after week. I promise you a very successful 2020 season.

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​NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS LOOK AHEAD FOR 2020 NFL SEASON

The excitement in New England understandably is high following the addition of Cam Newton, but Patriots fans might want to temper their expectations. It might be a shorter list if we wrote a paper on the Patriots weaknesses in the Revolutionary War. Today’s New England Patriots have some glaring shortcomings But the media hype is all about new quarterback Cam Newton. Pats fans might want to temper their enthusiasm while betting fans might want to rev up their bets against the Pats. Or at least be aware of what’s at stake

SCHEDULE

The most difficult schedule in the NFL belongs to New England. They have their normal difficulty at Miami. While Brady always played well at Buffalo, the Bills will be favored to win at home. The Jets should be their 2-0 sweep. But what about their non-conference games? At Seattle, at the Chiefs, at Houston and at LA Rams. Playing Denver, San Francisco and Baltimore at home will be ultra challenging at best.

TIGHT ENDS

It the past it was Brady to Gronk. Now it’s Newton to a tight end of the unknown variety. This weakness for the Patriots is not only an issue for this season but has been for the last few years. Their offense loves to use the tight end especially up the middle needing a long completion. But this weakness comes at the tight end spot and that position both in the passing game and in the rushing attack shows a gapping hole. This offseason, New England did draft a pair of tight ends in the NFL Draft with the selections of Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene in the middle rounds of the draft but it remains a mystery on how they factor into the offense.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Many question who are the targeted wide receivers? Although Edelman will continue to be solid as he always is and hopefully will be, that leaves little else. Sanu, Harry and others could step up even more than what they did in 2019 but that group doesn’t necessarily raise any eyebrows as being filled with talent. Who will Cam Newton look to as his favorite go to guy? Once other teams identify him, they will game plans accordingly. Do you still like New England?

LINEBACKERS

Can they excel on the defensive side of the ball? Their linebacker core indicates maybe not. I think the Pats’ most troubled position is linebacker. Behind a thin defensive line, the Pats’ linebackers are greener than the Belichicks have been used to in recent years and that is not the talent needed based on the scheduled top-notch quarterbacks they have to face.Donte Hightower is among football’s best but we always worry about injuries. It may be tough to bank on the two-time Pro Bowl selection making it through a full season healthy. Young linebackers Winovich and Bentley also have their work cut out of them as their roles are expected to expand in 2020.

MEDIA HYPE

So the bottom line is you now see a different picture of what’s presenting to Coach Belichick and his staff. The media has led many to believe that the only void they had was to replace Tom Brady. It’s far from that.

BETTING

I would bet under 9 wins as a future bet and additionally would be cautious on straight bets as the oddsmakers will take advantage on the love the public has for New England.