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Who’s on the Bubble?

March 1st is Monday. There’s an excitement in the air. There’s madness to this month. March Madness. It is officially the time of year where teams start to cement their standings for the NCAA Tournament. There’s the beginning of new life for many teams after a very difficult year. This also means that it becomes more clear which teams are on the bubble. Plenty of time remains in the season, but it appears that the bubble is stronger compared to years past. 

As of now, teams like Stanford, Richmond, and SMU are on the outside looking in along with other hopefuls. Will  LSU (13-6) be considered? Or an 11-4 Xavier team? One could make a case for  Maryland (13-10), Minnesota (13-9) and Indiana (12-9) from playing in the very difficult Big Ten. We need to also follow Texas Tech and Oklahoma St from the Big 12. This question about these teams really shows how strong the field must be. 

These are teams that I was bullish off and on throughout the season who remain legitimate tournament threats if they find their way in or redefine their form and shooting touch. What this means is that the programs that do end up making it, I would most likely favor them this year in their early March Madness matchups. 

Injuries vs Covid 
Remember to follow who’s been playing recently and who hasn’t. Are these recent developments or an injury from a month ago that impacted their season way back. 

What seems like an obvious tip is actually quite difficult at times, considering how many teams there are in DI basketball. It is necessary to track team injuries when filling out your bracket simply because a team can obviously be over valued and over-ranked without their best player playing much or recently returning. He might have fresh legs but lost his shooting touch. That’s box scores information that we perform but certainly pays huge dividends. 

Not only this, but remember to consider if a team lost a game when they weren’t playing at full strength or were perhaps without their head coach due to COVID protocols. Additionally, considering how a team played when certain players were injured compared to where they stand come tournament time is a sharp angle to take and will provide a leg up against your pool. If their replacements did a great job, note that as their bench strength deepened. 

Conference Tournament’s
Teams that are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives may get in; but may be drained by that Thursday start of March Madness. Any bubble team that had to win their own conference tournament to move forward most likely won’t go far after playing three grueling days to get there. For example, it Duke won the ACC tournament, they’re in but still an underachieving but popular betting team this year. Watch those teams that happened to get hot in those conference tournaments. 

Let’s all get crazy ready for March Madness. We’ll be focused and refocused every day of March.  Good Luck

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There’s a great prop bet in Las Vegas that gives you action among every team in all of college basketball. It’s this:

#1Gonzaga and #2Baylor vs
The Field -120. 


This side is the underdog, the top two teams all season. Both teams are far ahead of their closest competition in terms of talent, rankings and athleticism. Gonzaga and Baylor are a combined 40-0 and are the underdogs. That’s what makes this such a great bet. 


Let’s not look at all 64 teams but some possibilities for the sweet 16. We already know two of the teams so follow here:

There are four teams from the Big Ten sitting high in the top 5 rankings: Michigan 16-1, Ohio St 18-5 and Illinois 16-6. These three teams have fought with each other and had to play Iowa, Wisconsin and at Minnesota. Michigan is hot and talented. 

From the difficult Big 12 we have good competition all throughout the conference but especially with Oklahoma 14-6, West Virginia 16-6, Texas at 14-6 and a resurrected 
Kansas team 17-8. All have experience with coaching at this level. 


Two very good teams are Alabama 18-5 and Arkansas 17-5 from the SEC which are both high scoring offensive machines. 

The ACC has Florida St 13-3 and Virginia at 15-5. Duke is left to begging for a bid. FSU will be dangerous. 

Let’s not forget the Big East with Villanova 15-3 and Creighton at 16-5. Villanova just hasn’t had to play great competition. 

Houston 18-3 could be our final Sweet 16 entrant. But for fun, let’s add Loyola-Chicago 19-4 and San Diego St 17-4 from the Mountain West. Houston has offense, Loyola-Chicago has their Nun from two years ago and SD St places great defense. 

Here are some factors to consider:
1. Gonzaga and Baylor wouldn’t meet until the final four due to seeding. 
2. The other 14 teams certainly can knock each other off and will. 

3. Upsets in round one and two will definitely happen to a few teams from the field. 
4. In reality, Gonzaga and Baylor might only have to squeeze by the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. 

Once we get to the Saturday portion of the Final Four, Gonzaga and Baylor could luck out and not meet. However, if so, then you’ll have a great bet on the Monday Championship Game as you’d get either team as a pick em because of this current wager and the opportunity to middle as their opponent would be getting 8 points or more.

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All Super Bowl sports bettors should be focusing on many things other than those million-dollar bets that the media loves to report. Sportsbooks are filled with very smart $1000 bettors and right next to them in line to wager is that anonymous ego driven wealthy casino customer. It’s a guarantee the hotel/casino PR Department will make his bet a media sensation. ESPN, Yahoo Sports and BETMGM, Caesars or the Las Vegas Westgate will be the first to call them for this story. But what does it really mean? Who cares what some anonymous millionaire bet or how much he wagered? In reality, which side does the bettor who actually earns his living from sports gambling like? The Handicapping Professional is your BEST BET!! Successful sports bettors don’t parade around town bragging about the size of their bets. They are stealth as they don’t need everyone to know information which may affect the betting number as they bet at many different sports books grabbing the best numbers.

 Someone bet $2.3 million dollars on the Buccaneers in a single wager this week. ESPN was all over it as were others. They reported everything except the person’s identity. That’s fair but do you want to follow a ghost bettor? What happens when another gambler bets $3.0 million on the Chiefs two days later? Now who do you follow? Neither!! Because they don’t matter. Their bets are a creation by the media about someone that has too much money with the casinos not missing a beat. 

 If a celebrity makes the wager, sure, that’s news just not entertainment news. If Bill Gates makes a $3.0 million bet, that’s newsworthy to some but not gambling news. If the “mattress-man” from Houston makes a huge bet, that’s worthy of business news tying bets into a self serving store-wide promotion. The absolute real joke is back on those bettors. If the betting line didn’t move, we immediately know that even the sports books had no respect for those wagers.  Public money, even this large, doesn’t move anything. It just goes into their accounting department to be added to the balance sheet. 

 This is where astute bettors, sharps, math gurus and wise guys along with sports handicapping professionals such as Wayne Allyn Root are truly smarter than the house. And that’s why they win. These guys are your line movers. These players are respected and someone you should follow. Those other guys are basically some millionaire media creation. The real sports betting professionals such as Wayne Allyn Root will not only give great information on the side and total but in this new age era of 400 prop bets is second to none in terms of how to bet the Super Bowl.  Consider this one example of clearly thinking out of the box and using a prop bet for a huge score. When Denver met Carolina, that game was played with an older Peyton Manning at quarterback who could barely launch the football downfield. Wayne Root liked the Broncos side. But why bet $1100 to win $1000 without breaking down why the Broncos would win? His conclusion was that Manning would NOT throw them into the winners circle. It had to be won by defense. So if that was the case, Wayne Allyn Root made and advised all to bet on Von Miller to win the MVP at 16/1 odds. Von Miller did win the MVP and that same $1000 wager PAID A STAGGERING $16,000. That’s the difference between an ego driven wealthy media and casino creation and your seasoned sports betting profession such as Wayne Allyn Root. His side, total and top15 Super Bowl Prop bets are highly anticipated and will be released by Wednesday for all. 


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Follow the Money to Riches in Sports Betting

Big Connections Needed

Unless you’re one with big connections, you can’t easily find out how much money has been bet on each team in a particular game. Many like to think they know, and some do, but trust that a 35 year betting sports professional like myself certainly does. It’s my job and duty to “follow the money”. What I want to verify is it 2500 public bettors betting $200 each for $500,000 or three sharp players giving $500,000 in three different bets. That’s good and solid information that’s needed. 

Analyzing the Marketplace 

What you can find out, though, is how many bets by percentage have been placed on each team by monitoring as many sports books as you can. When we see a game in which a huge majority of the bets – 70 percent or more – are on one team we would typically expect the odds for that team to get less attractive. That’s the sign of public money coming in. But is the public money only showing up at one betting site or across all of Vegas and offshore? The books generally like to have action that is closed to balanced so that they can make profits with little risk, so they will change the lines to attract action to one team to achieve that balance. This will give you data on where the marketplace is betting. It will additionally allow you to see the line movement at different betting establishments. 

Sharp Money Bets

When a game moves in the opposite direction to what you would expect are you confused? Sometimes, though, we will see games in which the large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves the opposite expected direction to make that team even more attractive. What that tells us is that the small number of bettors on the less popular team have bet more money than the large number of bettors on the popular team. 

Do you Recognize the Upset?

If the team’s point spread moves significantly then we know that the smart money has bet the game aggressively. It can be profitable by betting against the public in these situations as the public is correct about 30% to 35% of their own bets. This is a great way to spot teams that are ready to pull off a big upset – something that can lead to very profitable moneyline bets. Even if the money line bets fail, the point spread bets that I post succeed and are successful over .62% of the time. 

See you in the Winner’s Circle and at the Cash Window

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Coach Belichick; “Make that phone call Monday”!

The City of Angels:

Los Angeles, located on a broad basin in Southern California, the city is surrounded by vast mountain ranges, valleys, forests, beautiful beaches along the Pacific Ocean, and nearby desert. It is the home to the World Champions; Dodgers and Lakers. 

Home of World Champions:
Only the NFL is missing a World championship team. And it won’t be the Rams with their quarterback, Jared Goff. An NFL team needs to start with two things. A successful and innovative head coach and a franchise quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers will fire their coach Monday and whomever takes the job will inherit an upcoming franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. 

Enter Bill Belichick:

He’s doesn’t have the time nor the patience to search for the next Tom Brady. Why should he? It’s sitting 3500 miles from him in sunny warm California.  All Bill has to do is “make the call”, throw away his winter clothes and grab his shades and head to the airport to join the Dodgers, Lakers and his new LA Chargers team. And if I was Owner Dean Spanos, I’d take my $18M home in La Jolla and give it to Coach Belichick. It’s no easy task filling up a 70,000 seat stadium with the competition coming from the Rams, Lakers, Dodgers and USC. That calls for marketing out of the box skills or one incredible hire. 

Belichick’s opinion on Herbert:
“He’s impressive – very talented player, tall, sees things well, has a good arm, can certainly make all the throws,” Belichick said of Herbert. “He’s athletic, can escape the pocket, smart. They do a number of things at the line of scrimmage – you’ve seen him check plays, audible against pressure, change plays against check-with-me type situations.

So, it looks like he’s going be a good quarterback for a long time, a lot to work with and I know he’s a smart, hard-working kid that likes football and I’m sure he will continue to get better, as he has this year throughout the course of the season. He’s improved from the early games that I’ve watched, and like I said, has a lot of good skill players to work with – good tight end, good backs, good receivers. So, yeah, he’s a good player.”

Will he; Should he:
While Belichick highlighted all of his strengths, his notorious for exploiting rookie quarterback’s weaknesses. Maybe he didn’t notice any or maybe he’s headed west and doesn’t want to mess with his head. There’s no denying that Belichick would garner some buzz in the City of Angels. Belichick, who has a proven track record of winning, would be in a situation where he has the pieces to make a big run.

Bottom line:
They’ve got a star quarterback and they’re in a crowded sports market. Justin and Belichick would sell tickets for a franchise who can’t sell tickets. Quarterback Justin Herbert would have a coach that helped a guy develop into one of the best at his position, with that being Tom Brady.

Season tickets, going fast:
They get someone to help sell tickets. It sounds like an exhausting argument, and it is, but the goal of upper-management is to make this team as successful and profitable as possible. There definitely is an added benefit to having Herbert and Belichick together to sell tickets. And having a defensive minded coach is exactly what the Chargers need to put with their offense.  

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Gonzaga vs Iowa Round One

In an anticipation of last Saturday’s matchup between Gonzaga and Iowa, it looked like taking the points were the way to bet. Iowa was blowing everybody out averaging over 100 points per game and looking like the 1990 UNLV Runnin Rebels. To solidify this notion, because of Covid, the Zags we’re entering the arena with multiple days off due to postponements. No. 1 Gonzaga took control midway through the first half at the Sanford Pentagon and held off a late flurry by the No. 3 Hawkeyes to win a marquee December hoops matchup 99-88. That was a shocking score as it really was worst during the final 10 minutes. Iowa center Luka Garza gave it everything he had to finish with 30 points, relishing his chance to tangle with perhaps the most talented team he’ll face all season. Joe Wieskamp added 20 points. The Zags (4-0), coming off a two-week break due to COVID-19 issues, were a step ahead of the Hawkeyes (6-1) throughout the game. Gonzaga got 27 points from point guard Jalen Suggs and 13 from senior wing Corey Kispert, a preseason all-American like Garza. Kispert fouled out of the game. Joe Toussaint is the quickest Iowa player, and that was vital in a game like this, with Gonzaga applying pressure and trying to get transition baskets. Incredible guard play is necessary for any team to make a respectable outcome against Gonzaga. Gonzaga had 11 fast-break points in the first half, which is the same rate it had in its first three games. Joining in as other teams to watch early this year in addition to Gonzaga and Iowa, Baylor and Villanova will not disappoint college basketball aficionados. 

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In the NFL, there’s is no tanking to improve for draft positions. Many have thought so but it’s doubtful it’s gone from average Joes setting up a scenario for their team to justify whatever they wanted to fit their own agenda. “Please lose so we get the Number One selection”. 


Let me explain what is real and is very much defined by the teams actions. It’s call an “organization reset of assets”. That’s a fancy term for dumping players; not games. That’s a slick and smart way to dump salaries and clear cap space. This is management’s and the owners way of moving forward. 


When the Miami Dolphins we’re dumping and trading their best players for their own organization reset, they not only lost games but we’re getting blown out. One couldn’t have a discussion without hearing how Miami was setting themselves up to draft Alabama’s quarterback, Tua. It was a sure bet as the losses piled up. Then what happened? They began to win. They actually finished the season with five (5) wins. What happened? They reset and properly allocated their organization’s assets. They dumped huge contracts. 

2019 to 2020 RESULTS 
They NEVER lost a game on purpose. They reset for this year. If you look at the success of what they managed to do in a year; few would have believed they’d go from 0-10 last year to winning five games to eliminating New England from the playoffs last week to themselves at even money to make it into the wild card arena of the NFL playoffs. Cincinnati ended up choosing Joe Burrow as the first selection. 

This brings me to 2020 with the race of becoming this years worst team. The word was that the Jets had a firm hold on first place. But the head coach wouldn’t sign off continuous losing. And why would he? He’s 99% for sure fired in two weeks. Why leave what he needed as a franchise quarterback for the new head coach to walk into? Why would Sam Darnold want to lose so that he would lose his job as the Jets starting quarterback? He may not get another chance after this job. 

If someone was to tank and trade up, the Cowboys could not renew Dak Prescott at $35M and lose the past two weeks. But they didn’t. In fact, they went winner winner and still could make the playoffs. 

Keep in mind the there are many talented players in the top six draft spots coming out of college. And none are guaranteed to be the next superstar. Who knows where the next Patrick Mahomes will come from? Or the next sixth round pick as in Tom Brady. What about the next Dick Bukus? There’s always that next one. Or play, reset and get into the first six picks. 

This is why players won’t go 0-16. No matter what and it’s not proven that the coach or management have asked for that. Did you see the celebration for the Jets after Sunday’s defeat on the road against the Rams as a 17 point dog?  They did not want to be in the same all time losers category as only two other teams are presently into. Did you see the clips of how much it meant for Cincinnati to defeat the Steelers as a 13.5 underdog? Maybe the Jacksonville Jags will win a game in their last two weeks. But they won’t try to lose!

Only two games remain, but the Jaguars’ horrendous season can’t end soon enough. Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry took to Twitter Sunday, writing that the New York Jets delivered an early Christmas present to Jacksonville. Indeed, the Jaguars are now in the driver’s seat to land Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft because of the Jets upset the Los Angeles Rams 23-20 Sunday to notch their first win of the season.

Now all they need to do is lose the final two games against Chicago Bears this upcoming Sunday at TIAA Bank Field and the Indianapolis Colts in the season finale. Although the Jaguars and Jets now have identical 1-13 records, the Jaguars own the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker for the No. 1 overall pick. Will they tank or are they just bad enough to lose while playing and giving 100%?  I say there’s no tanking at all. But in the upcoming months, the Jags will get Trevor Lawrence on a cheap five year contract and use cap space to protect their investment with some offensive lineman picks a big backfield blockers. Now that’s an organizational reset of assets. If they can only hold on and gain two more losses. 

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Highlights, Questions and Comments 

Philadelphia owes him $62M.🤷‍♂️

In five seasons under Coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 11-3 in games not started by Carson Wentz (including the playoffs) and 35-33-1 with Wentz starting. Hard choices can be costly. 

Drew Brees to start or wait??

Taysom Hill passed for a career-high 291 yards, but he also threw an interception and lost a fumble. With 11 cracked ribs, let him heal. 

We knew he’d be a great one!!

Washington’s rookie defensive end Chase Young put on a show with six tackles, a sack, two passes defended, two quarterback hits and a 47-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. Defense Defense Defense. 

Strong case for MVP🤷‍♂️

Derrick Henry is leading the N.F.L. with 1,532 yards rushing this season — just 8 short of the total he led the N.F.L. with last year — and he has run for 100 or more yards in his last nine road games. Honor a running back that fee want to even tackle head on. 

NFC-East picks up interest!!

The severity of Alex Smith’s injury was not immediately announced. With the Giants losing last week, combined with wins by Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas, kept things interesting in the N.F.C. East, which is making up for its lack of quality by having all four teams in the division race with three games remaining. 

Vikings kicking themselves?

Dan Bailey missed an extra-point attempt in the first quarter and proceeded to miss field-goal attempts of 36, 54 and 46 yards, with each sailing wide right. Vikings kicker is having a mental meltdown?  Dan also missed two extra points and a 51-yard field-goal attempt last week, making him 1 of 4 on extra points and 2 of 6 on field goals. 

Throw out the game stats!!

Tampa Bay had the ball for less than 21 of the game’s 60 minutes, and while Minnesota had the game’s leading passer, leading rusher and leading receiver. Final score: Bucs 26–Vikings 14

I’m baaaaack Chicago fans!!

Mitchell Trubisky had a terrific game against the Houston Texans, completing 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago managed to keep the Bears very much alive in the race for the N.F.C.’s third wild card.

Could they finish 0-3; or


Green Bay controls its own destiny as far as a first-round bye is concerned, and the Packers will close their season with winnable games against Carolina, Tennessee (in Green Bay) and Chicago.

Need linebackers in a hurry!!

The Steelers looked lost trying to slow down quarterback Josh Allen, receiver Stefon Diggs and the Bills’ offense, losting, 26-15. As a result, the Steelers will go into Week 15 trailing Kansas City for the top spot in the AFC. Defense is leaking fast. 

Tom Brady’s Christmas wish!!

Tampa Bay improved to 8-5, and is on its way to its first playoff appearance since 2007. He has his offense set for a playoff run!

The next John Elway??
Drew Lock finished the day with a career-high four passing touchdowns leading the Broncos to an unlikely win over Carolina.

The Buffalo Bills are complete now.
Stefon Diggs had 10 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. He is the first player this season to reach 100 receptions. It’ll be Allen to Diggs in the playoffs. 

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The NFC East ATS thru Week 14

The NY Giants are 8-4 ATS. 

S/u 5-8 and 2-4 at home

The Football team is 6-5 ATS

S/u 5-7 and 4-2 at home. 

The Eagles are 4-8 ATS 

S/u 3-8-1 and 4-3 at home. 

The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS

S/u 4-9 and 1-5 at home. 

S/U against winning teams 

NY Giants win over Seattle last week was the first win over a team with a winning record thru week 13. On week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New Orleans Saints for the NFC division’s second win over a team with a winning record. That was my Pinnacle Bet of the Year (now 13-3). But let’s bet with the point spread and like the perception they give the masses. After all, the oddsmakers do this every week. 

Making money week 15-17

We can make money from week 15 to week 17.  Three  weeks of value and most bettors giving up on them. The oddsmakers know that.

The straight up record for this division is 17-32-1. But with the point spread, it brings us to 23-28.

A confident vote AGAINST Dallas 

The biggest culprit is Dallas; America’s team. The oddsmakers realize this. The public is ingrained to believe that. The bets continue to flow in on them. If we never bet on Dallas, the worst division in the NFL would now be 20-18 ATS. 

Adapt your thinking

In gambling at sports, sometimes one needs to adapt and change betting philosophies. It’s daring and risky but we sports bettors are risk takers. If we bet on the Ny Giants, Washington and Philadelphia but bet against the Dallas Cowboys, our ATS numbers would change to 30-21 ATS. 

Going against Dallas makes sense

It’s not out of character to adjust to these situations. Their starting quarterback is out for the year. Their backup got hurt for a few games. At four (4) wins, and needing one of the many college quarterbacks preparing for the NFL draft, why would they now be able to win? I don’t see the Cowboys playing for Texas pride. I don’t see them laying it on the turf for their coach. At times, even tho their paychecks are on autopay, I don’t even see most playing for Jerry Jones money. With injuries, lack of attitude and focus, a bet against the Cowboys and bets on the other three are the money makers. The oddsmakers know everyone has given up on this division and will make their opponents over-priced wager opportunities for the masses. 

Making money ATS in the NFC-East 

I will concentrate on more NFC EAST bets in week 15-17 to finish the season. I’ll be on for the most part, NY, Washington and Philadelphia and against Dallas.