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50 Days From the MLB Trade Deadline


This pitcher could get many teams to the World Series.  Max Scherzer

Washington’s injury woes — Juan Soto and Stephen Strasburg are both on the injured list — and underperforming rotation have some wondering if the Nationals would look to deal Scherzer this summer if the season went awry.


As of Tuesday, the Yankees sat in third place in the AL East at 33-32, 10 games behind Tampa Bay and seven behind Boston. They are 2.5 games behind in the Wild Card race.

Max Scherzer is as lethal as ever, even as he approaches his 37th birthday four days before the July 31deadline. His 2.22 ERA is eighth in MLB and he’s only allowed 48 hits in 77 innings entering his start last week against the Giants. He has fanned 104, held opponents to a .180 average and has an 0.82 WHIP.

Remember how he looked May 8 at Yankee Stadium? He annihilated the Yanks lineup, allowing two hits and a run in 7.1 innings while striking out 14 and walking one.

All of that would make the future Hall of Famer a nifty complement to Gerrit Cole. The two could help the Yanks get to October and then be an intimidating 1-2 punch in any playoff series.

Are there other’s? MANY!!


The perfect fit is with the St. Louis Cardinals, who passed on the hometown hero as a free agent.

The Cardinals, with three-fifths of their starting rotation on the injured list – including ace Jack Flaherty who could be out two months with his oblique injury – are in desperate need for a starter. Scherzer is a free agent at the season’s conclusion, and with his family still living in the St. Louis area, they would have a huge advantage retaining him.

The Cardinals, after getting All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado in February, could easily package top third-base prospect Nolan Gorman.


Do you want to return to the World Series? It’s hard to imagine a better bet to be made with $12 million than on a half season of Max Scherzer.

The Rays are in first place; two games ahead of Boston and six ahead of the Yankees. 

50 Day Watch

There are 50 days left before teams have to officially decide whether they keep shopping, start selling, or simply wait until the next sale this winter.

Washington is 28-35 (.444) entering Tuesday and in fourth place in the NL East. They are seven games out in the division and nine games out in the NL Wild Card race. If they sink further, perhaps they dangle Scherzer and re-tool around Juan Soto and Trea Turner.

Stay tuned for a potential shopping spree coming to a city near you.

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Wouldn’t it be sweet if we could see all these young men develop into the likes of a Brady, Mahomes, Farve, Montana or Marino? So much talent to evaluate and every General Manager is dropping bottles of Tums sweating this week and the next few months. QB’s make the NFL teams their brand and the franchise while missing on a top draft choice will have some coaches fired down the line. We wish all these players the best this week and in the years to come. 

1. Trevor Lawrence—-Clemson
Height: 6’6″ Weight: 213 

Unless something bizarre happens, Lawrence is headed to Jacksonville where he’ll hook up with Urban Meyer and the organization will dip into its deep pool of available cash and hopefully surround him with more than just a patchwork offensive line. How quickly he learns what he can’t get away with against NFL defenses is the determinant to how good he’ll be. Lawrence is regarded as the safest bet at quarterback since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford in 2012, played seven seasons and retired before the age of 30. Lawrence threw 90 touchdowns and 17 picks in three seasons at Clemson and runs like a deer. His game and playing style is so well-rounded that he can function in virtually any offense that awaits him in the NFL. His arm is more then sufficient to run a vertical passing game. His mind is quick enough and his ball placement is good enough to work in a West Coast system. 

Mechanically Lawrence is as solid as it gets, and when you study him pay attention to his footwork in the pocket. Whether throwing from clean pockets or being forced to move and reset, Lawrence stays mechanically sound in those moments from head to toe.

Hopefully, having been the number quarterback for the past two years, nothing has changed his desires or leadership qualities along with his ego. 

2. Zach Wilson——BYU
Height:  6’2″  Weight: 214

Zach is a truly great thrower. His quick and nifty mobility is a complement to his game rather than a staple to old school drop back passer. When it comes to ball placement, accuracy, release, throwing a catchable ball he’s already there. Because of the teams quality of opponents played last season, some consider that a negative. He may have to work harder and get coached for a year on the sidelines like Mahomes did his rookie year. As a compliment, he has some Josh Rosen/Baker Mayfield to his style. Given how the league currently views Patrick Mahomes it is easy to see why Wilson is making a charge for QB1 on some boards. You can see how Wilson is reminiscent of Mahomes on almost every single throw. From the ability to make off-platform throws with ease, his willingness to create outside of the pocket, and his arm aggression, Wilson looks like a baby Mahomes on the field.

3. Justin Fields—-Ohio St
Height: 6′ 2 3/4″ Weight: 227 

His tools – strong arm, clean mechanics, accuracy, toughness, speed and power – are all there. Fields has that unknown risk factor related to how much of their brilliance is attributable to being surrounded by so much talent at OSU. His biggest claim was an eye-popping performance in the national semifinal game against Clemson which shot his stock up. After losing to Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers two seasons ago, Fields put on a show against them this past year, throwing six touchdowns, many of them after taking a brutal hit in the first half. Athleticism is one of his strengths, as Fields is a truly athletic quarterback that has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton. He posted recently a video on Twitter of him running a hand-timed 4.41 40-yard dash 

4. Mac Jones—-Alabama 
Height: 6’2″ Weight: 217 

In the National Championship Game against Ohio State, Jones was 36 of 45 passes for 464 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. So is that why San Francisco trade up for a chance to draft him? Jones is not very powerfully built and the ball doesn’t pop off his hand with velocity like it does for the other four guys. He seems like a guy with a high floor and a low ceiling. With no combine this year, it’s somewhat difficult to grade him. How much should be attributed to the Alabama program and two incredible wide receivers?  He literally had better skill position players in Tuscaloosa than Cam Newton had in Foxboro. Mac’s name is McCorkle — Mac for short — which is a fact that I think you should know to win a trivia bet. Beyond that, however, Jones was the best at Pro Football Focus’s Adjusted Completion Percentage last season, positing a whopping number of 84.2%. Jones’ greatest strength is his accuracy, deep ball and ability to work at all three levels. He can move a little but he’s not particularly athletic and if he’s behind a less-than-stellar line, he’s going to have little elusiveness to fall back on. 

5. Trey Lance——North Dakota St
Height:  6′ 3 3/8″ Weight: 224

In his last full season, Lance threw 28 touchdowns and zero picks as a redshirt freshman in 2019. Because of Covid, his team only played one game in 2020. Much like Josh Allen of Buffalo when he was drafted and could go very deep, Lance may throw the best deep ball of any of the quarterbacks in this draft. There are some clear strengths that he offers. Easy arm talent is the first such strength. All of the top four quarterbacks in this class have what you might consider “plus” arms but Lance might have the best of the bunch. Effortless velocity shows up in every game. Then there is the athletic ability. Lance is a weapon with the football in his hands, and his rushing production at NDSU backs that up. 

He’s exceptionally poised in the pocket and throws with an excellent base and has played in the cold weather as did Allen in Wyoming. He’s also a better than capable runner offering that new type of quarterback that coaches want. Because of just one season of FCS football under his belt, his decision-making and reading defenses skills will need time to grow.

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Pay Close Attention To Late

Season Changes

Smart, expert sports bettors know that it pays to be aware of what the betting public is likely to think and do in a particular situation because that will have an impact on how the lines are set, how they move, and where the value can be found. With my 35 years of experience, I can single handily tell you the Oddsmakers line on the next game of the one just played based on the previous play and how the public perceived the final result. This is especially true heading into the playoffs at the end of the year. The public thinks that teams are scripted by the NBA for playoffs seeding and who generated the best TV money. I certainly pay attention to that but more importantly, seeing an improvement late in a playoff borderline team making a late season charge is certainly different than a team in third an no chance to move up to the number three seed as for solid information. 

Understanding Momentum 

There are all sorts of factors that can lead to a winning streak such as a dose of increased confidence, good health, an easy schedule, and luck among them. To put too much faith in momentum is to believe too strongly that what has happened in the past has a direct bearing on what will happen in the next game. That makes momentum a dangerous concept for NBA sports bettors. Understand what the changes are and look for solid reasons for better play for example. Let’s certainly not ignore negative momentum as internally there could also be reason to go against a certain team. There are usually glaring reason for such shifts in players play or a team’s performance. More important than momentum are matchups. Some teams play better at a slower tempo while other love the transition game. Certain teams defend the perimeter neutralizing the opponent’s three point shooting. 

Look For Road Results

When a team is on a strong streak on the road – One of the simplest ways to measure how tough and talented a NBA team really is is to look at their performance on the road. This is an even bigger factor in the playoffs. Studies have shown that the biggest reason that home court advantage exists is the crowd. With Covid restrictions during the regular season, take that into account. As we move into post-season, the NBA may admit fans. That momentum of having crowds finally would probably help the home underdogs more than anyone. The officials normally are well aware of the crowd, and are not interested in making that crowd angry, so they subconsciously give the home team some advantages. In the playoffs the crowds and the fans are more enthusiastic and vocal. That means that home court advantage is going to be tougher to overcome in the playoffs than it might be in the middle of the regular season. A team that appears to have a lot of momentum on the road is one that is probably tough enough to not be bothered by the extra challenges the playoff offers when they are on their opponent’s hardwood. That will increase their chances of playoff success, and therefore makes them more interesting for sports bettors depending on how big a favorite they are for that particular game. 

When a Good Team is Struggling. 

Let’s first find out why a good team is struggling late in the season. Are their players being rested? Was there a “key” injury? Is their regular season standings set to where they can’t move up in seedings? We always find out the “why”. More significant than a lot of momentum heading into the playoffs is the opposite – a total absence of momentum. Some strong contenders will perform at less than their potential down the stretch because they are looking forward to the playoffs and have little left to accomplish in the regular season. Sometimes, though, the struggles of a good team will go well beyond just trying to save themselves. If a team is losing games they should be able to win, performing well below expectations statistically, and bickering or exhibiting a bad attitude in the press, then it could be an important sign that the team isn’t as ready for the league playoffs as they should be, and may not be as strong in the playoffs as their record would suggest. This is especially true for the lower seeded team that barely make the playoffs. They may have extreme talent but are very young and are fighting among themselves. 

Nice Betting Value Is Apparent 

It usually happens in the first round of the playoffs. Some team that has a mediocre over-all win/loss regular season record may be playing their best basketball. Teams that were 15-26 the first part of the season may have for some important list of variables completely did an about face and finished 26-15. That’s the key stat!! If a team has been shooting better from the field, defending better on the perimeter and under the basket, or rebounding better recently then they did on the whole year then it’s quite possible that they have taken their game to a new level. Perhaps they are more comfortable with each other, or their coaches have found a better way to get through to them, or they are healthy. That’s the value of great coaches. They know the season is long and they’ll use all 82 regular season games to adjust the lineups and find the right chemistry. Whatever the reason, this type of momentum is very valuable for bettors because it can lead to a situation in which a team is better than their record, and therefore better than a lot of casual bettors will assume them to be. That could lead to nice value for the basketball bettor.

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Betting Baseball Mission Statement 

Upon completion of reading this, you should be able to see why baseball is by far the best sport to invest your money. With the house edge being significantly smaller compared to other sports, and the ability to predict future outcomes, baseball can quite easily and most definitely become your most profitable sport to bet.

The Largest Sample Size Wins

What statistic do you think is more reliable – Aaron Rodgers’ completion percentage in 16 games, or Juan Soto’s batting average in 162 games? If you have taken any kind of statistics course, you know that larger sample sizes are much more predictive. With so many measurable skills and outcomes, with consistently improving analytics readily available to anyone, over a long 162 game season, it’s relatively easy to create a predictive model for baseball (relative to other sports). And it’s not hard to convince anyone of the logic that this is very true and the reason that Sportsbooks place betting limits on baseball but not on football. Out of all the major American sports, baseball is by far the leader in analytics, research, and advanced statistics. Now popularly known as sabermetrics, this phenomenon has allowed front offices and sports bettors alike to more accurately project a game’s outcome. It comes with more bang for your buck. The only risk the players may have occasionally is less action but more profits to the bankroll to make up that shortcoming. 

Point Spread vs Money Line Betting

Football and basketball regularly make up about two-thirds of all bets placed in the United States. In these sports, most bets are made on the point spread. Instead of simply betting who will win the game, most bettors bet HOW MUCH a team will win (or lose) by in football and basketball. Let’s look to understand the difference of laying points vs betting money lines. In football, if you lay -7 points and bet the favorite and the score is 20-17 with 1:45 to play, the favorite will simply play to use up the clock, maybe kick a field goal and win by by six points. You lose your bet even tho the favorite won the game 23-17. Has the following happened to you betting a top 25 team in hoops? In basketball, you bet the favorite to cover a -12 point spread. With 1:25 to play and up 70-55, the home team favorite calls time out and sends in the second team substitutes. Final score is 72-62. You lose your bet even tho the favorite won the game. Does that sound all too familiar? Two favorites lose and the bettor goes 0-2. 

Batter Up…Bet Baseball 

In baseball, it’s who wins the game. If the LA Dodgers are playing the Colorado Rockies and you bet the Dodgers, all the Dodgers have to do is win the game…period. A game where you don’t have to win by a set amount. Just win the game and get paid. Additionally, in baseball, no matter who I pick though, I know that either team will try to “win” the game. Players will try to score runs on offense, prevent runs on defense, and managers will use strategies to optimize the team’s chance of winning – thus enhancing the chances of my bet winning. This doesn’t happen when betting point “spreads” in football or basketball.

Why To Consider The House Edge

The house edge for baseball is typically half that of point spread odds. Because baseball betting doesn’t have the same draw and popularity of football and basketball, sportsbooks cut their odds prices a long time ago to attract more action. Instead of the traditional -110 odds for even match-ups, -105 is now the norm for baseball. This drops the house edge from 4.55% to 2.44% using the same calculations as above. However, the price advantage doesn’t stop there. For each dollar bet, there is always a ten-cent difference between the amount required to win $1 with a bet on the favorite and the payout a $1 bet on the underdog will win. This difference, or spread, is where the term “dime line” comes from and is the number one reason why one definitely needs to concentrate on baseball.

The Bottom Line

Assuming you have created a model that gives you a positive expected value, the longer season is an incredible benefit. Compare this to owning a roulette table which has a positive expected value of 5.26%. Would you rather own it for one hour, one day or one month? A lot of variance can happen in one hour and you might not make a profit despite the 5.26% edge. HOWEVER, this variance should smooth out, or regress to the mean over a longer period of time (such as 24 hours or 30 days). Compare this example to the difference between an NFL season and MLB season. There are 256 football games versus 2430 total baseball games. Even if you built an NFL model with a positive expected value, there’s a decent chance you will lose money with such a small sample. By stretching this advantage over 2430 games, you are much more likely to make a profit. So lastly, are you in this for action or in this to make a profit? The baseball is in your hand; throw some strikes and and then hit it 

out of the ballpark. 

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The last time we had an undefeated national champion was in 1975-76 season with the Indiana Hoosiers. And the last time we didn’t have Duke and Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament was 1975-76. For those that believe in coincidences, Gonzaga enters the tournament 26-0 and is favored to win it all. Let’s take a look. 

Team Strengths
Most teams have one particular strength that identifies their greatness. Gonzaga’s strength is that they have no weakness. Gonzaga’s offense is an unstoppable force. Not only did they average the most points out of any team, they make more shots than they miss and have the best shooting percentage from inside-the-arc as well at a 63.9% clip. Gonzaga’s roster has a mix of everything, led by leading scorer and sharpshooting senior Corey Kispert and anchored by top NBA prospect and freshman floor general Jalen Suggs. They have also received significant contributions from crafty sophomore big Drew Timme and lengthy junior guard Joel Ayayi.
The Zags are playing at one of the fastest paces in college basketball, with short, efficient possessions. The results have been outstanding as the Bulldogs are simply blowing teams out, outscoring opponents by more than 30.3 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among all D-I teams.

Challenges This Year?
Gonzaga coach Mark Few wanted a very difficult non-conference schedule to show how good this team is and they proved they can handle the best of the best of Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, and defeating BYU two times. However, Gonzaga did get challenged somewhat in the WCC championship game against BYU. While they were 25-0 at the time, it was a blessing in disguise as it showed how the Zags could handle some adversity and not fall apart and go on to win. One of their upcoming tournament games is bound to challenge them but they can outlast any team, and their starting five is the best group of starters in the nation. Their biggest challenge comes from within to prove they are as great as their conference 5 counterparts. Let’s expect them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder to prove just how elite they are.

Team Weaknesses
The Zags basically go six players deep because of a surprising lack of depth. Most of their starters play around 28-30 minutes and playing two games in three days could possibly be tiring the deeper they go. If they face a team that forces fouls, they could find themselves in trouble if they need to sit some starters who are in foul trouble. The Zags have shown they can overcome this very weak obstacles. If we’re grasping for straws, Gonzaga is a bit dependent on interior scoring as 58.3% of the team’s points come from inside-the-arc. That’s barely a problem. If they face a big physical team that challenges them down low, they could have some trouble scoring. Teams like Iowa, Texas Tech, Florida State, and Maryland all boast solid interior defense. 

Why They’ll Cut Down the Nets
This team hands down should be AND is the tournament favorite. Consider this: In 2015, the Kentucky team was one of the best college basketball teams of all time. They came in with an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 37.43 pre-tourney, clearly three points ahead of the second-ranked team. Currently, 
Gonzaga holds an AEM of 38.05, almost six points ahead of the second-best team. The Zags are ranked better than the 2015 Kentucky team and even further ahead of the rest of the field. Don’t expect Gonzaga to be challenged until the Sweet 16 at the earliest. They are incredibly consistent and are not prone to upsets. 

Why They Won’t Win it All
Great teams have been toppled before during March Madness (Arizona brings in memories). The madness is rarely after the first two rounds. And no team will test them ahead of the sweet 16. Then Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois, all elite teams, can offer challenges to the Bulldogs in the Final Four or championship game. It will be tough, but it has been a while since Gonzaga has seen a top-10 team, so they could absolutely be surprised by one or experience an off night. 

March Madness Prediction
With a team as talented as Gonzaga, it almost seems like reaching the Elite Eight is the floor for them. It is chalky to pick them as a champion, but there is a reason for that. This is absolutely the best team in the tournament, and they are my championship pick. In a season defined by uncertainty, the one constant has been the dominance of this Gonzaga program. Under head coach Mark Few, the Bulldogs have recorded the best offense in the NCAA and have a top-ten defense as well and it’s no fluke they are undefeated.  
We’ll see how well they can hold up when they are facing tougher competition, as their strength of schedule is still relatively mid-level thus far. But all signs point to this team as the most likely to cut down the nets in a few weeks.

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Betting Against the Public in College Hoops: NCAA Basketball Tournament.

March Madness 2021

Every March the public gears up for the single best sporting event on planet Earth. Four weeks of daily college basketball. Businesses run promotions around this craziness. Betting pools are in every office. Wives sit with husbands to watch “their college team”. The word “madness” might not tell the entire story. Sharp gamblers love when the public is involved. They continually make our handicapping easier year after year. We have a good idea who will win prior to tip off. When the public is involved, they become our barometer of betting.

Different Strategy for March Madness 

There is increased public attention as we near the NCAA Tournament — so Betting Against the Public works particularly well at this time of the college basketball season. The annual countdown to March Madness begins anew. Although many casual fans wait until tournament time before regularly watching college hoops, the long duration of the regular season plus the copious number of Division 1 programs creates ample opportunities for contrarian sports bettors to extract value. 

The Public Begins Madness Betting  

Betting Against the Public has proven to work across all of the major sports, but March Madness is a special time of year. The public loves to bet big name favorites. Their knowledge is based on looking at a top 25 poll and then laying double digits.  When one team garners more than 60% of the bets and is favored by at least 14 points, the favorite wins against the spread 56.5% of the time. 

Betting Trends and Tools

These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use “consensus” numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages and analysis accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.
College basketball offers sports investors many investment opportunities — and at the same time, many challenges.  We have many tools that sports investors can use for college hoops. Tools that the sports professionals utilize hourly. This includes bread-and-butter sports investing tools such as Betting Percentages and Line Moves. In addition, the Number of Bets placed at the counter is often overlooked as an indicator and the public doesn’t have access to that very important information. Parley cards are analyzed and put into algorithms for review. 

Why Bet Contrarian to the Public?

The value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on the game so, naturally, it’s more lucrative to bet against the public when the volume of bets increases during March Madness. If more bets are being placed on a game, it’s more likely that oddsmakers will be forced to adjust their lines based on an influx of “square” or “public” money. These artificially inflated lines create value for anybody willing to take the unpopular side of a game. For example; would the public bet Ball St +8.5 to beat UCLA? Probably not. Would the public be inclined to wager on Michigan -18 against San Diego St? Most definitely! Contrary to popular belief. The oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. They take it in account prior to releasing the point spreads. Over the course of the day, market-setting sportsbooks allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. It’s only in the most heavily bet games (where sportsbooks have high levels of potential liability) that public money can affect the spread. Sharp bettors get the advantage from knowing the public’s side without the penalty of any line movement. The public rarely will move the betting number. 

Oddsmakers Advantage with Lines

Public bettors overwhelmingly take favorites and overs, which makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint. It’s human nature to ROOT for winners and scoring, and the media’s propensity to overhype these teams only exasperates this tendency. The sharpest Vegas bettors certainly take advantage of this ongoing betting style. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines to exploit the tendencies of casual bettors. Since the “beginning” of time, the majority of public bettors have taken the underdog in just 22.65% of all college basketball games. That number is fairly consistent, regardless of how many bets are placed on each game. But what happens in the rare instances where the majority of public bettors are taking the underdog? Is there still value betting against the public? In those cases, the sharps could lay off that game. Again, if a game has 70% on the same side whether it’s the favorite or the underdog, since we don’t have to bet every game; we analyze, decide and move on. We’re not in the Madness for action, TV games or betting our favorite teams and alma mater. We’re in it to WIN. Our entertainment is always about WINNING. 

Let the Madness begin.

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Who’s on the Bubble?

March 1st is Monday. There’s an excitement in the air. There’s madness to this month. March Madness. It is officially the time of year where teams start to cement their standings for the NCAA Tournament. There’s the beginning of new life for many teams after a very difficult year. This also means that it becomes more clear which teams are on the bubble. Plenty of time remains in the season, but it appears that the bubble is stronger compared to years past. 

As of now, teams like Stanford, Richmond, and SMU are on the outside looking in along with other hopefuls. Will  LSU (13-6) be considered? Or an 11-4 Xavier team? One could make a case for  Maryland (13-10), Minnesota (13-9) and Indiana (12-9) from playing in the very difficult Big Ten. We need to also follow Texas Tech and Oklahoma St from the Big 12. This question about these teams really shows how strong the field must be. 

These are teams that I was bullish off and on throughout the season who remain legitimate tournament threats if they find their way in or redefine their form and shooting touch. What this means is that the programs that do end up making it, I would most likely favor them this year in their early March Madness matchups. 

Injuries vs Covid 
Remember to follow who’s been playing recently and who hasn’t. Are these recent developments or an injury from a month ago that impacted their season way back. 

What seems like an obvious tip is actually quite difficult at times, considering how many teams there are in DI basketball. It is necessary to track team injuries when filling out your bracket simply because a team can obviously be over valued and over-ranked without their best player playing much or recently returning. He might have fresh legs but lost his shooting touch. That’s box scores information that we perform but certainly pays huge dividends. 

Not only this, but remember to consider if a team lost a game when they weren’t playing at full strength or were perhaps without their head coach due to COVID protocols. Additionally, considering how a team played when certain players were injured compared to where they stand come tournament time is a sharp angle to take and will provide a leg up against your pool. If their replacements did a great job, note that as their bench strength deepened. 

Conference Tournament’s
Teams that are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives may get in; but may be drained by that Thursday start of March Madness. Any bubble team that had to win their own conference tournament to move forward most likely won’t go far after playing three grueling days to get there. For example, it Duke won the ACC tournament, they’re in but still an underachieving but popular betting team this year. Watch those teams that happened to get hot in those conference tournaments. 

Let’s all get crazy ready for March Madness. We’ll be focused and refocused every day of March.  Good Luck

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There’s a great prop bet in Las Vegas that gives you action among every team in all of college basketball. It’s this:

#1Gonzaga and #2Baylor vs
The Field -120. 


This side is the underdog, the top two teams all season. Both teams are far ahead of their closest competition in terms of talent, rankings and athleticism. Gonzaga and Baylor are a combined 40-0 and are the underdogs. That’s what makes this such a great bet. 


Let’s not look at all 64 teams but some possibilities for the sweet 16. We already know two of the teams so follow here:

There are four teams from the Big Ten sitting high in the top 5 rankings: Michigan 16-1, Ohio St 18-5 and Illinois 16-6. These three teams have fought with each other and had to play Iowa, Wisconsin and at Minnesota. Michigan is hot and talented. 

From the difficult Big 12 we have good competition all throughout the conference but especially with Oklahoma 14-6, West Virginia 16-6, Texas at 14-6 and a resurrected 
Kansas team 17-8. All have experience with coaching at this level. 


Two very good teams are Alabama 18-5 and Arkansas 17-5 from the SEC which are both high scoring offensive machines. 

The ACC has Florida St 13-3 and Virginia at 15-5. Duke is left to begging for a bid. FSU will be dangerous. 

Let’s not forget the Big East with Villanova 15-3 and Creighton at 16-5. Villanova just hasn’t had to play great competition. 

Houston 18-3 could be our final Sweet 16 entrant. But for fun, let’s add Loyola-Chicago 19-4 and San Diego St 17-4 from the Mountain West. Houston has offense, Loyola-Chicago has their Nun from two years ago and SD St places great defense. 

Here are some factors to consider:
1. Gonzaga and Baylor wouldn’t meet until the final four due to seeding. 
2. The other 14 teams certainly can knock each other off and will. 

3. Upsets in round one and two will definitely happen to a few teams from the field. 
4. In reality, Gonzaga and Baylor might only have to squeeze by the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. 

Once we get to the Saturday portion of the Final Four, Gonzaga and Baylor could luck out and not meet. However, if so, then you’ll have a great bet on the Monday Championship Game as you’d get either team as a pick em because of this current wager and the opportunity to middle as their opponent would be getting 8 points or more.

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All Super Bowl sports bettors should be focusing on many things other than those million-dollar bets that the media loves to report. Sportsbooks are filled with very smart $1000 bettors and right next to them in line to wager is that anonymous ego driven wealthy casino customer. It’s a guarantee the hotel/casino PR Department will make his bet a media sensation. ESPN, Yahoo Sports and BETMGM, Caesars or the Las Vegas Westgate will be the first to call them for this story. But what does it really mean? Who cares what some anonymous millionaire bet or how much he wagered? In reality, which side does the bettor who actually earns his living from sports gambling like? The Handicapping Professional is your BEST BET!! Successful sports bettors don’t parade around town bragging about the size of their bets. They are stealth as they don’t need everyone to know information which may affect the betting number as they bet at many different sports books grabbing the best numbers.

 Someone bet $2.3 million dollars on the Buccaneers in a single wager this week. ESPN was all over it as were others. They reported everything except the person’s identity. That’s fair but do you want to follow a ghost bettor? What happens when another gambler bets $3.0 million on the Chiefs two days later? Now who do you follow? Neither!! Because they don’t matter. Their bets are a creation by the media about someone that has too much money with the casinos not missing a beat. 

 If a celebrity makes the wager, sure, that’s news just not entertainment news. If Bill Gates makes a $3.0 million bet, that’s newsworthy to some but not gambling news. If the “mattress-man” from Houston makes a huge bet, that’s worthy of business news tying bets into a self serving store-wide promotion. The absolute real joke is back on those bettors. If the betting line didn’t move, we immediately know that even the sports books had no respect for those wagers.  Public money, even this large, doesn’t move anything. It just goes into their accounting department to be added to the balance sheet. 

 This is where astute bettors, sharps, math gurus and wise guys along with sports handicapping professionals such as Wayne Allyn Root are truly smarter than the house. And that’s why they win. These guys are your line movers. These players are respected and someone you should follow. Those other guys are basically some millionaire media creation. The real sports betting professionals such as Wayne Allyn Root will not only give great information on the side and total but in this new age era of 400 prop bets is second to none in terms of how to bet the Super Bowl.  Consider this one example of clearly thinking out of the box and using a prop bet for a huge score. When Denver met Carolina, that game was played with an older Peyton Manning at quarterback who could barely launch the football downfield. Wayne Root liked the Broncos side. But why bet $1100 to win $1000 without breaking down why the Broncos would win? His conclusion was that Manning would NOT throw them into the winners circle. It had to be won by defense. So if that was the case, Wayne Allyn Root made and advised all to bet on Von Miller to win the MVP at 16/1 odds. Von Miller did win the MVP and that same $1000 wager PAID A STAGGERING $16,000. That’s the difference between an ego driven wealthy media and casino creation and your seasoned sports betting profession such as Wayne Allyn Root. His side, total and top15 Super Bowl Prop bets are highly anticipated and will be released by Wednesday for all. 


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Follow the Money to Riches in Sports Betting

Big Connections Needed

Unless you’re one with big connections, you can’t easily find out how much money has been bet on each team in a particular game. Many like to think they know, and some do, but trust that a 35 year betting sports professional like myself certainly does. It’s my job and duty to “follow the money”. What I want to verify is it 2500 public bettors betting $200 each for $500,000 or three sharp players giving $500,000 in three different bets. That’s good and solid information that’s needed. 

Analyzing the Marketplace 

What you can find out, though, is how many bets by percentage have been placed on each team by monitoring as many sports books as you can. When we see a game in which a huge majority of the bets – 70 percent or more – are on one team we would typically expect the odds for that team to get less attractive. That’s the sign of public money coming in. But is the public money only showing up at one betting site or across all of Vegas and offshore? The books generally like to have action that is closed to balanced so that they can make profits with little risk, so they will change the lines to attract action to one team to achieve that balance. This will give you data on where the marketplace is betting. It will additionally allow you to see the line movement at different betting establishments. 

Sharp Money Bets

When a game moves in the opposite direction to what you would expect are you confused? Sometimes, though, we will see games in which the large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves the opposite expected direction to make that team even more attractive. What that tells us is that the small number of bettors on the less popular team have bet more money than the large number of bettors on the popular team. 

Do you Recognize the Upset?

If the team’s point spread moves significantly then we know that the smart money has bet the game aggressively. It can be profitable by betting against the public in these situations as the public is correct about 30% to 35% of their own bets. This is a great way to spot teams that are ready to pull off a big upset – something that can lead to very profitable moneyline bets. Even if the money line bets fail, the point spread bets that I post succeed and are successful over .62% of the time. 

See you in the Winner’s Circle and at the Cash Window