Saturday 8/21/21 UFC Fight Night: Main Event Cannonier vs. Gastelum




Cannonier opened as a 9/5 favorite but early money has been on the dog, Gastelum. Currently, as of this writing, Cannonier is -145 and Gastelum is +125. Cannonier is 8  years older than Gastelum but he seems to be nearing his peak. He started his career at heavyweight and has moved down two weight classes to Middleweight. Gastelum, a blown-up Welterweight, on the other hand, has been in more UFC fights and seems to be on the decline as he is 1-4 in his last 5 fights. Statistically, Cannonier has the better defense. He utilizes great leg kicks and Gastelum is heavy on his lead leg. Cannonier has an 84% finish rated while Gastelum has a 63% finish rate. Gastelum absorbs a lot more punches but he has  one of the best chins in the division. Cannonier will have a huge 6 inch reach advantage and will be the much bigger man when they step in the cage. Look for Cannonier to utilize leg kicks and piece up Gastelum on the feet. Gastelum will be tough to finish as he went 5 rounds with the current Middleweight champ Adseyana. I see Cannonier winning a decision or perhaps a late stoppage due to leg kicks.

The pick is Cannonier by decision


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