Short answer: they have real upside, but based on the current odds and current division picture, “automatic NFC East winners” is not the safe bet.

 

1) The current division situation (NFC East)

As of the latest available standings snapshot, (06/25) the Eagles are ahead in the NFC East and the Cowboys are behind them.

That means to “win the division,” Dallas typically needs either:

  • sustained improvement + tiebreaker edge (head-to-head / common games / conference record), and/or
  • the Eagles to slip.

2) Their odds to win the NFC East / conference / Super Bowl

Division / conference / Super Bowl odds 

Different sites pull from different markets and can differ by exact date/time, but here are the key data points that show where the betting market has Dallas valued:

  • NFC East title odds: examples include +200
  • To make playoffs: -110
  • Super Bowl odds: BetMGM lists the Cowboys at +2000to win the Super Bowl. 

What that implies:
If their Super Bowl price is around +2000, they’re being treated like a serious contender—but not as the favorite to win the NFC outright.

3) Over/under win total and “how many games will they win?”

One report focusing on betting lines cites:

  • Win total around “over 8.5” 

How to translate that:

  • An 8.5 win total generally implies the market expects something like 9–10 wins, not 12–14 games.
  • If Dallas goes under ~8.5, they likely need the Wild Card path (or hope for help in the standings).
  • If they hit 9 or 10, they’re in the “playoff life is real” range.

4) Playoff chances: division vs Wild Card reality

Because Dallas is behind in the division right now, the cleanest path is:

  • close the gap and win the division late in the season, or
  • land a Wild Card berth.

To evaluate playoff likelihood in practical terms, you’d look for:

  • ability to win “swing games” vs mid-tier NFC teams,
  • maintaining offensive efficiency in late-season matchups,
  • and minimizing turnovers/penalties.

5) Is their schedule favorable?

Dallas’s 2026 schedule includes games against several strong/meaningful opponents (including matchups vs):

  • Eagles (Monday night at least once in the listed slate),
  • Ravens (early part of the season listing),
  • 49ers,
  • Packers,
  • plus division games vs Giants and Commanders, among others.

How to judge “favorable”:

  • A schedule is “favorable” only if they have a reasonable probability of winning enough of their must-win contests (division + winnable cross-conference games).
  • Without computing full opponent win percentages (not provided directly here), the fair takeaway is: they face enough high-end teams that they can’t coast—so their record hinges on execution and health.

6) The big question: “Is their defense off the charts?”

From the recent offseason/draft context, Dallas has invested heavily toward the defense. For example, the Cowboys’ 2026 draft coverage highlights:

  • selecting Caleb Downs (safety) and Malachi Lawrence (edge) as defensive additions. 
    And there was broader reporting that Dallas prioritized strengthening the defensive side via multiple selections/exchanges. 

But “off the charts” depends on 3 things you’d confirm from stats after (or during) the season:

  1. Pass rush (sacks + pressure rate, not just sacks)
  2. Coverage quality (especially opponent passer rating / downfield conversion rates)
  3. Red zone defense (turnovers and TD suppression)

In other words: the roster signals intent, but whether it becomes “off the charts” is a results question more than a promise question.

7) Backfield: running game, and what to expect

“How is their backfield including their running back.”

A useful way to assess this quickly:

  • who is the feature back
  • how many touches the backs get behind the line vs at contact
  • whether Dallas can generate chunk runs and sustain drives (important for defense)

From offseason movement coverage, one specific RB-related note indicates:

  • Javonte Williams agreed to a new 3-year deal (with 16M guaranteed noted in reporting) after arriving from Denver. 

Also, Dallas’s roster listings include multiple RBs (example: Malik Davis appears on the roster page listing). 

What this usually means for an “is it their year” question:

  • If the Cowboys can establish a reliable run game, it boosts playoff ceiling because it:
    • controls game tempo,
    • reduces QB pressure,
    • and gives the defense better rest.

8) Any new wide receivers?

The roster/draft notes and roster listings indicate new WR additions as well. For example:

  • Anthony Smith is listed as a WR selected in the 2026 draft (7th round, per roster-related references). 
  • Dallas’s roster pages also show current WRs on the active list. 

There’s also reporting (in a different language source) that George Pickens is involved with a franchise tag context for 2026. 

What I’d look for in evaluating Dallas’s WR situation this season:

  • route participation and target distribution,
  • separation ability (especially on third down),
  • and how often the offense can create points without perfect field position.

Bottom line: Is this their year?

My betting-market-consistent take:

  • Dallas has enough talent and has clearly reinforced parts of the roster (especially defense) to be a playoff contender. 
  • But “winning the NFC East” isn’t presented as the most likely outcome right now (division odds like +200 are underdog-leaning). 
  • The win total market centered around 8.5 suggests a 9-ish win season is plausible—enough to make playoffs, but not necessarily enough to lock the division. 

Finally, for all Dallas fans, EVERY YEAR is their year.