Free NFL WINNER by Wayne Root
NFL - 11-30-2025 - PointSpreadTake Houston
Backing Houston +3.5 makes sense because the Texans’ defense has been the best in football, allowing just 264.3 yards per game (1st) and holding opponents to 16.5 points per contest (2nd). That kind of defensive consistency travels well, especially against a Colts team that leans heavily on Jonathan Taylor to set the tone. Houston has been elite against the run, giving up only 92.2 rushing yards per game (5th), which matches up directly with Indy’s strength. If they can limit Taylor’s production and force Daniel Jones into obvious passing situations, the Texans have the personnel to keep this game tight. With C.J. Stroud back under center and Nico Collins leading a steady passing attack, Houston has enough balance to stay within a field goal.
On the other side, Indianapolis has been explosive offensively, averaging 31 points per game (1st), but their defense has been shaky against the pass, ranking 28th at 245.4 yards allowed per game. That opens the door for Stroud to exploit mismatches downfield, especially with Collins stretching defenses outside and Dalton Schultz working the middle. The Colts’ run defense is strong, but Houston doesn’t rely on pounding the ball; they win by protecting possessions and letting their defense dictate tempo. In a divisional matchup where points will be at a premium, taking the Texans with +3.5 feels like the sharper side, as their defense is built to keep them in striking distance all afternoon.
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