Free NFL GAME by Wayne Root
NFL - 12-21-2025 - PointSpread
Take Miami
Neither of these teams is playing for a postseason spot, but that doesn’t mean the situations are identical.
Cincinnati’s season has slowly unraveled. Six losses in seven games tell part of the story, but the larger issue is how disjointed the Bengals have looked on offense. Joe Burrow’s public frustration speaks volumes, and this offense has struggled to sustain drives or protect its defense from constant short fields. Even when the Bengals stay competitive early, the margin for error has been razor thin.
Miami, meanwhile, finds itself in a different emotional space. The Dolphins were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss in Pittsburgh, but that defeat also removed any illusion of expectation. Sometimes, that clarity matters. While Tua Tagovailoa struggled in that game, Miami’s defense kept things competitive far longer than the final score suggests, and this unit has consistently shown it can keep opponents in check when games slow down.
From a betting perspective, this is less about upside and more about control. Both teams have leaned heavily toward lower-scoring outcomes, and the total has steadily dropped from 50 into the high 40s for good reason. Expect a measured pace, limited explosive plays, and extended stretches where field position outweighs aggression.
The difference comes down to environment and structure. Miami is at home, facing a Bengals team that has shown little resilience late in games. Even without playoff stakes, the Dolphins are better positioned to dictate tempo and play from in front, which is critical when backing a modest home favorite in a game projected to stay under the number.