BETTING TO WIN ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL
If you noticed, we are 17-7 (71%) for this years preseason bets on college basketball. Preseason not only gives teams a solid month and half of preparation, but also gives us time to fine tune our power ratings, update the teams with new players entering their team and those that graduated. Now that conference play is here, I assure you that our point of attack is more than ready and our numbers will be stronger than the oddsmakers.
ODDSMAKERS NUMBERS vs OURS
Many have asked why our numbers are more important than the oddsmakers? That's a good question being that the oddsmakers works for the sportsbook industry. But in reality, they only work to put out a pointspread that will balance the bookmakers desire to have equal action on both sides. That is their only objective....balanced numbers. Our goal is to WIN!! We take the combination of their posted numbers and while acknowledging that most are very similar to our numbers, there are a few that the oddsmakers had to make major adjustments to offset the public's known desire of which to bet that team. We have made a 33 year living doing this. It's betting against the public. Consider this: In the NFL, their are no limits placed on bets. But in college basketball, there are 315 college teams and the sportsbooks place limits because the oddsmakers cannot be anywhere near correct on every team. They are lucky to marginalize two-way action on every game while we only have to bet one of two handpicked winners where the lines are off. Additionally, the sportbooks do not care if they lose $10,000 to the professionals on one side of the game and win $10,000 from the public that bet the opposite side of our team. That's a $1000 profit to them with the 10% vig.
WHY DO THE ODDSMAKERS "GET IT RIGHT" SO OFTEN?
The answer is based on psychology. The public loves to bet favorites and “overs”. It’s human nature to "ROOT" for winners and scoring. The media, which over-hypes winning teams that score a lot of points, further inflates this human tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly. Sportsbooks look to balance their books. The oddsmakers look to exploit sports bettors’ tendencies by shading favorites and overs. We salivate and look to play accordingly on just those few games.
ADDED PROFITS FOR US?
If you control the betting number, you win purely by getting "value" in the long run. When you add the insight from a World Champion professional handicapper, those numbers will crush the sportsbooks. One out of 14 college basketball games falls on the number. If we recognize the number is off by a point, that adds about .03% to the final win percentage. We do it consistently over the year and that added percentages combined with expert staff, information and sources, separates us from the public's win/loss record of 40% to our at 60%+. This is a interesting and measurable fact that the public cannot grasp.
THE PUBLIC BETTING SYSTEM AND BETTING SYNDROME
The Public Betting System which focuses on maximizing contrarian value in the sports betting marketplace by highlighting the day’s most lopsided games, in terms of the Public Betting Percentages is a Wayne Root hallmark that began over 35 years ago and has tested the sportsbooks for the past 33 years. (Don't change what's working.) We use and utilize a term that works when money is involved and keep it as basic as this: Follow the Money!! The public simply can't win and few really can even identify who "the public" is. They change on a weekly basis depending on what they saw, heard or read last week. The syndrome I refer to is also known as "reverse line movement" involving smart money as compared to total tickets vs dollar volume of wagers. Having 40,000 bets totaling $500,000 is not the same as 400 tickets totaling $500,000 from smart money. Reverse line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages. This is a sure sign that smart money, or large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates. This is the type of information of which I have, most want but few having access.
UNITS WON vs WINNING PERCENTAGE
Understanding the importance of units won vs. winning percentage will help you evaluate the true worth of any sports betting system. If I win my PINNACLE PLAY and my INNER CIRCLE CLUB selection but lose my Millionaires and No Limit pick, I am 2-2. But with proper money management, you are money ahead. Many play $100 per star. They would win 1700 on my top two Pinnacle and Inner Circle plays and lose 1100 (with vig) on my two lesser rated plays for a net profit of PLUS $600 after going 2-2. This is a desired goal. If the worst you did was break even in a day but still made a profit, you'd really be all smiles with the Wayne Root sweep.
If you have further questions, feel free to ask my General Manager: Hollis Barnhart firstname.lastname@example.org