Getting through Sunday in NFL Week 15 means there are only three games left for teams to try and make their final pushes. However, the chaos of Week 15 that saw Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons both tear their ACL also left some teams in its wake. The Kansas City Chiefs caught a raw deal, losing their quarterback and their game, which officially eliminated them from the playoffs. And while the Dallas Cowboys aren't officially ousted yet, they're down to a 1 percent chance after a dismal loss to J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football.
It’s important to note that these rankings consider more than just win-loss records and playoff seeding. Factors like player and team-level grades, offensive and defensive efficiency, prior performance from past seasons, and strength of schedule all play a role. This is why teams with worse records and slimmer playoff hopes may rank higher than those with better records who have managed wins against weaker opponents or delivered inconsistent performances from key players.
1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 18%
After a back-and-forth first half, the Rams put on the jets and lifted off against the Lions in Week 15, defeating their NFC foes 41-34 in a matchup that had a big-fight feel to it. The Rams’ offense had success at every avenue. Running backs Kyren Williams (81.9 grade; 7th) and Blake Corum (78.1 grade; 13th) combined for 149 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while Matthew Stafford (93.3 grade; 1st) threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns, with 181 yards going to Puka Nacua (95.4 grade; 1st).
The Rams have scored 86 points in their last two games, and head into a huge Week 16 showdown against the Seahawks in good standing. They have a 61% chance of winning the NFC West, and a win against the Seahawks would all but seal the division.
2. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 91%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 7%
Even though the Packers still have a 91% chance of making the playoffs and a 51% chance of winning the NFC North, their Week 15 loss to the Broncos came with significant consequences. Edge defender Micah Parsons (92.0 grade; 2nd) suffered a season-ending torn ACL, and his status for 2026 now comes into question, too. Naturally, that’ll leave Packers fans feeling reflective about the offseason trade to acquire Parsons, but the hope is the two-time All-Pro defender can return to his best next season.
Injuries to receiver Christian Watson (85.4 grade; 7th), tackle Zach Tom (83.5 grade; 9th) and safety Evan Williams (71.9; 22nd) also muddied the waters for the Packers in their pursuit of a Super Bowl. But, they’ll still likely have one of the best rosters in the NFC and will stick to the task at hand, even if it is a little tougher without Parsons.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Chance of making playoffs: >99.9%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 9%
The battle for the AFC East isn’t over just yet. The Bills rallied from a big deficit for the second time in two weeks against the Patriots in Week 15, defeating their division foe 35-31 on the road. Overcoming slow starts has been the Bills’ penchant in recent games, and it’s served them well so far. Josh Allen (87.5 grade; 4th) and James Cook (80.7 grade; 8th) led the way in the comeback victory.
The Bills are now 10-4 and still second in the AFC East, but they’ve delayed the Patriots‘ celebrations a little longer and maybe thrown a spanner in the works. The defense played better ball in the second half — but still allowed a 52.2% rushing success rate, and is now 25th in success rate in 2025. The offense is rolling, but the elephant in the room is the defensive struggles.
4. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 99%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 10%
The Seahawks avoided a pitfall in Week 15, defeating the Colts 18-16 — courtesy of a late field goal from Jason Myers (91.8 grade). The offense had an average 43.3% success rate in the win and struggled in the red zone, but a perfect 6-for-6 kicking performance from Myers — as well as a strong showing from the defense — did enough to get the job done against the Colts and the returning Philip Rivers.
Most importantly, the Seahawks keep pace with the Rams atop the NFC West and walk into a division-deciding showdown in Week 16.
5. Houston Texans (9-5)
Chance of making playoffs: 95%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 9%
The Texans have hit their stride at the right time, moving to 9-5 on the year after a dominant 40-20 win against the Cardinals in Week 15. The defense remains a juggernaut, ranking first in EPA per play allowed and holding opponents to a league-best 16.3 points per game. But the offense, for a myriad of reasons, has been playing catch-up for most of the year. Since C.J. Stroud has been back under center, the Texans are 10th in EPA per play, and Stroud’s 70.4 grade is 18th among quarterbacks.
The playoffs beckon for Houston after an 0-3 start to the season.
6. Denver Broncos (12-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 100%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 16%
The Broncos made a statement in their 34-26 win against the Packers in Week 15, making it 11 victories in a row while they moved to 12-2 on the season — taking full control of the top seed in the AFC. The win represented a big moment for quarterback Bo Nix (75.5 grade; 16th), too. The Broncos’ signal-caller completed 23-of-34 pass attempts for 302 yards and four touchdowns, earning an 83.1 overall grade in likely the best game of his young career.
The offense has often been viewed as the unit that can hold the Broncos back from real postseason success, especially after a string of unconvincing performances in 2025. But games like this from Nix prove that the Denver offense — which is now 11th in EPA per play — is moving in the right direction. Maybe they’re real contenders after all.
7. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Chance of making playoffs: 98%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 4%
It was only the Titans’ defense, but this is the best the 49ers’ offense has looked since Brock Purdy (77.1 grade; 13th) stepped back into the lineup. Purdy compiled a 91.0 overall grade while completing 23-of-30 pass attempts for 295 yards and three touchdowns, and the 49ers strolled to a 37-24 win to move to 10-4 on the season.
The 49ers have been forgotten about in the race for the NFC West title, but they’re still only a game behind the Rams and Seahawks. Plus, they have one more tilt remaining against the Seahawks. Regardless, they’re a near-lock for the playoffs.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
Chance of making playoffs: 99%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 4%
It feels like the Eagles have had multiple opportunities for a “get-right win” in 2025. A win that just stops the rut, gives you a little more momentum and a little more belief; the chance to put things right. They were presented with that same opportunity against the Raiders in Week 15 and thoroughly obliged, romping to a 31-0 triumph.
The defense swallowed the Raiders whole, holding them to 1.8 yards per play while sacking Kenny Pickett four times. The offense did what it needed to do, with Jalen Hurts (79.1 grade; 10th) throwing for 175 yards and three touchdowns on a 79.5 overall grade. A good win for the Eagles, and one that likely seals their third NFC East title in the last four years.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
Chance of making playoffs: 93%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 4%
The Chargers have been playing objectively ugly football on offense over the last month of the season, ranking 29th in offensive EPA per play since Week 11. However, they’re 3-1 in that stretch and 10-4 on the season.
The Chargers are ostensibly doing the least Chargers things possible and winning the ugly games. The 16-13 victory against the Chiefs isn’t the Chargers’ best of the season, but it could be their most important. They’ve now got a 93% chance of making the playoffs despite their struggles.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Chance of making playoffs: 98%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 4%
In the last two weeks, Trevor Lawrence (79.6 grade; 9th) and the Jaguars’ offense have locked in. Lawrence delivered an emphatic performance in the 48-20 Week 15 win over the Jets, completing 20-of-32 pass attempts for 330 yards and six total touchdowns (five passing, one rushing), registering a career-high 93.5 overall grade in the win. Indeed, Lawrence has earned a 94.0 grade over the last three weeks — the highest among quarterbacks.
The Jaguars have won six of their last seven games coming out of their bye week, and are 10th in offensive success rate since Week 9. They have a 49% chance of winning the AFC South, and one more win would secure their best regular-season record since 2007.
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Others that are hanging in:
AFC
New England (11-3)
Pittsburgh (8-6)
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NFC
Chicago (10-4)
Detroit (8-6)
Tampa Bay (7-7)
Carolina (7-7)