The NFL has reached peak NFL as we hit the Week 12 Power Rankings. Five teams — the Dolphins, Panthers, Bears, Texans and Broncos — won on the final play Sunday, which tied the league’s single-day record. Three more teams — the Bills, Packers and Ravens — erased fourth-quarter deficits on the way to victory.
It’s important to note that these rankings consider more than just win-loss records and playoff seeding.
1. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 98%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 12%
The Rams did the bulk of their scoring early, tallying two touchdowns in the first quarter to build up a lead before letting their defense really take over in the 21-19 win against the Seahawks. A matchup between two of the best all-around teams in the NFL could have gone either way, but it was the Rams’ defense — which now ranks third in EPA per play — that stood tall, picking Sam Darnold off four times to finally pull ahead in the NFC West at 8-2. The Rams have a 12% chance of winning the Super Bowl, best in the NFL.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 99%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 10%
The Eagles’ defense has been a black hole for two of the best offenses in the NFL over the last two games, giving up just 16 total points against the Packers and Lions. This was as good as it gets for defenses. The Eagles permitted -0.410 EPA per play in Week 11, and completely shut down both elements of the Lions’ offense. The 16-9 win pushes the Eagles to 8-2, further strengthening their hold at the top of the NFC East.
3. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 75%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 6%
The Packers have spent most of the season avoiding banana peels by the skin of their teeth, and it happened again in Week 11 against the Jameis Winston-led New York Giants. This Packers team is talented on both sides of the ball and clearly has the chops to be one of the best in the NFL, but their inability to handle lesser opponents without issue is concerning. Quarterback Jordan Love (84.4 grade; 7th) did leave the game with an injury early in the first half, but returned to help deliver the win and push the Packers to 6-3-1 despite four drops from his receivers.
4. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 91%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 9%
Josh Allen (84.7; 6th) put forth a superhuman performance against the Buccaneers, scoring six total touchdowns (three rushing, three passing) while earning a 72.4 grade in the 44-32 win. It’s hopefully enough to put a Week 10 loss to the Dolphins in the rearview mirror, though legitimate concerns over the defense — a unit that ranks 18th in EPA per play allowed — are still valid. Buffalo’s group has allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games. But when the offense, and Allen in particular, is operating at such a high level, it’s covered up.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Chance of making playoffs: 59%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 7%
Alarm bells must surely be ringing in Kansas City. On one hand, the Chiefs aren’t playing poorly. The offense has struggled in its last two outings, but this version of the Chiefs’ offense probably has a higher ceiling than previous ones. But after the 22-19 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs are now 5-5 and officially on the outside looking in. They’re also four games behind the Broncos in the AFC West. The division feels all but gone, but if the offense — which still sits second in EPA per play — can lock in and make a run, Kansas City can push its way back into the playoffs via the wild card.
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Chance of making playoffs: 76%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 9%
The Ravens were on upset watch heading into the fourth quarter while struggling to pull away from an elite Browns defense. Lamar Jackson (71.7 grade; 18th) labored through the game and was sacked five times, but a late flurry of points — including a 35-yard touchdown run from Mark Andrews (63.1 grade; 35th) — was enough to lift the Ravens over the Browns and to 5-5 on the season. A Steelers win in the AFC North doesn’t help Baltimore’s aspirations, but until a Week 14 face-off, all the Ravens can do is keep pace.
7. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Chance of making playoffs: 74%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 5%
For the first time since Week 7 of the 2023 season, the Lions were held to under 10 points in a game. Aside from Jahmyr Gibbs (84.7 grade; 2nd) — who caught five passes for 107 yards — and receiver Jameson Williams (66.8 grade; 57th) — who scored the Lions' only touchdown of the game — the passing game struggled to click. The Lions’ aggression on fourth down didn’t pay off either, as they went 0-for-5 on fourth-down conversions while trying to keep drives alive. A very out-of-character performance from one of the best offenses in the NFL. But a positive to take? The Detroit defense looked sharp and is eighth in EPA per play.
8. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 87%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 5%
The Seahawks’ offense, one of the most efficient in the NFL so far this season, struggled against the Rams’ defense on Sunday, with quarterback Sam Darnold (88.9 grade; 2nd) throwing four interceptions and having his worst game of the season. The defense still played lights out; for the offense to score just one touchdown and still lose by just two points means the sky is not falling in Seattle. This is still a very good football team.
9. Denver Broncos (9-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 96%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 10%
Once again, the Broncos keep finding ways to win football games despite less-than-stellar performances from the offense. In truth, this was one of Bo Nix’s (74.0 grade; 13th) better games, registering an 85.3 grade while adding four big-time throws. The defense still did the heavy lifting against one of the best offenses in the NFL, but this wasn’t a slouch performance from the Denver offense. The Broncos are now 9-2 and have a 76% chance of winning the AFC West.
10. Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 83%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 6%
The Colts better have rested up on their Week 11 bye after defeating the Falcons in overtime in Germany, because they now return to the third-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. How much of an issue will that be for one of the best teams in football? The Colts have sidestepped almost all adversity, led by Jonathan Taylor (84.6 grade; 3rd) and the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. Indianapolis’ rugged schedule features matchups against the Chiefs, Texans (twice), Seahawks, Jaguars (twice) and 49ers. It’s time to see what this Colts team is really made of.
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These teams have not been forgotten and will make it exciting.
AFC
New England
LA Chargers
Pittsburgh
NFC
San Francisco
Chicago
Tampa Bay