It’s important to note that these rankings consider more than just win-loss records and playoff seeding. Factors like player and team-level grades, offensive and defensive efficiency, prior performance from past seasons, and strength of schedule all play a role. This is why teams with worse records and slimmer playoff hopes may rank higher than those with better records who have managed wins against weaker opponents or delivered inconsistent performances from key players.
There is a changing of the guard underway in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, who played each other in two of the past three Super Bowls, are suddenly in serious trouble. The Chiefs’ entire season is on life support, while the Eagles are in danger of losing their grip on the NFC East to the Cowboys.
1. Los Angeles Rams (9-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 95%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 13%
The Rams have been nearly impervious in 2025, but their loss to the Panthers in Week 13 has significant implications. The 9-3 Rams are no longer the top seed in the NFC after the 31-28 upset defeat on the road, but their status as Super Bowl contenders shouldn’t be debated. Matthew Stafford (92.4 grade; 1st) had three turnovers in the loss, including two interceptions — his first interceptions since Week 3—while the Los Angeles defense couldn’t slow down a potent Panthers rushing attack.
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 89%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 10%
The Packers put on their hard hats and went to work against the Detroit Lions in Week 13, winning 31-24 in the Thanksgiving opener and sweeping their NFC North rivals while improving to 8-3-1 on the year. This might have been the best the Packers have looked since that Week 1 win, too. Jordan Love (87.3 grade; 3rd) was aggressive and confident, and the Green Bay defense shut down the Lions’ running game. We saw special performances from Dontayvion Wicks (72.7 grade; 31st) — who caught six passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns — and edge rusher Micah Parsons (91.9 grade; 3rd), who totaled 2.5 sacks.
3. Buffalo Bills (8-4)
Chance of making playoffs: 94%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 9%
It took a while for the Bills to get going — they only scored three points in the first half — but once they got there, they didn’t let up in a 26-7 Week 13 win against the Steelers. The offense leaned on a huge performance from James Cook (80.3 grade; 10th) — who ran the ball 32 times for 144 yards — to carry the offense while the passing game felt stuck in the mud. And the defense, which has been oft-maligned in recent weeks, shut down the Steelers’ offense and came up with a defensive touchdown on an Joey Bosa (79.2 grade; 21st) strip-sack. Better for the Bills.
4. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 91%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 7%
The Seahawks’ defense had a field day against the Vikings in Week 13, posting a 26-0 shutout while picking rookie Max Brosmer off four times — including a pick six — forcing a fumble and recovery and sacking the quarterback four times. Though the victory never felt in doubt, that performance from the defense was needed. The offense had its own issues against the Vikings' defense with a 38.8% success rate in the game, averaging 3.5 yards per play. A timely reminder that Mike Macdonald’s defense is one of the best in the NFL.
5. Detroit Lions (7-5)
Chance of making playoffs: 44%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 3%
A lack of week-to-week consistency has plagued the Lions all season. After the 31-24 loss to the Packers in Week 13, the Lions have now failed to win back-to-back games since Week 4 and 5. That’s not great. This Lions team is too talented on both sides of the ball for that to happen, but this is the hand they’ve been dealt. The injury to receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (90.0 grade; 4th) in the loss to the Packers will sting, as will the news that former center Frank Ragnow will not be coming out of retirement to join the team after failing a physical. The Lions needed his presence on the offensive line. It can’t help that they meet the hottest team in the NFL (Cowboys) Thursday night.
6. Houston Texans (7-5)
Chance of making playoffs: 68%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 6%
The Texans have caused a stir in the AFC South after toppling the Colts 20-16 in Week 13. C.J. Stroud (68.8 grade; 25th) returned to the lineup and helped lift the offense, while the defense — which ranks first in EPA per play — flatlined one of the best offenses in the NFL. Not only does the win hand a blow to the Colts, but it throws the Texans — who have now won four straight games — deeper into the playoff mix. They’re a game back of the Jaguars and Colts and have a 68% chance of making the postseason.
7. Denver Broncos (10-2)
Chance of making playoffs: 98%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 12%
The Broncos continue to stack up wins after the 27-26 overtime victory against the Commanders in Week 13, moving their record to 10-2 and lifting themselves closer to their first division title in over 10 years. Bo Nix (73.3 grade; 16th) and the passing game picked apart the Commanders' defense, but the defense came up with the game-winning stop on a two-point attempt deep into overtime. The offense has looked better in recent weeks, but the ace in the deck remains Denver’s elite defense.
8. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
Chance of making playoffs: 21%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 1%
The Cowboys are 3-0 since their Week 10 bye week, and in the last two games, they’ve rattled off back-to-back wins against last year’s Super Bowl teams. The offense has continued to play like one of the best in the league, but in those three matchups, the defense has stepped up. The worry for the Cowboys, who are 6-5-1 with a 21% chance of making the playoffs, is that this potential run has come too late. The defense is 18th in success rate over the last three weeks, while Quinnen Williams has posted an 84.4 overall PFF grade. All hope is not lost in Dallas, but the Cowboys can’t afford any more slip-ups.
9. Chicago Bears (9-3)
Chance of making playoffs: 76%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 4%
It’s no longer time to pump the brakes on the Bears. After the emphatic Week 13 win against the Eagles — where the offense rushed for 281 yards — combined with the Rams’ loss to the Panthers, the Bears are now the clubhouse leaders in the NFC with a 9-3 record. That’s now five straight wins for the Bears, and just as importantly, a strong showing from the defense. Chicago has now forced turnovers in five straight contests, and has more takeaways than any other unit in the NFL.
10. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Chance of making playoffs: 60%
Chance of winning Super Bowl: 5%
The Ravens lost their first game since Lamar Jackson (62.6 grade; 32nd) returned to the lineup in Week 13, falling to the Joe Burrow-led Bengals 32-14. Let’s be clear, the Ravens' ceiling is still high: They still have a 60% chance of reaching the playoffs. But, the offense hasn’t played well since Jackson’s return.
Whether it’s a case of Jackson not being healthy or things just not clicking, the passing offense is 26th in EPA per pass play since Week 9. Like the Chiefs, the Ravens deserve the benefit of the doubt for who they’ve been in recent seasons, but any concern is justified. The Ravens don’t look like the Ravens yet.